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Two days remaining.

England's opening match in Australia starts on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent challenge of batting successfully, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the duo, they have won by a total of 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 matches.

Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new venue has been won by the team batting first.

England often overthink day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|