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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, although experts believe PVV stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June amid a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign dominated by topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant fragmentation means that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. But, opponents and experts argue that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks could take several months, analysts indicate that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.